Turkey’s government is embarking on a controversial initiative to reshape governance in Syria post-Bashar al-Assad. Sources indicate that this plan, which has been trialed in northeastern Syria since 2016, aims to facilitate the establishment of a controlled regime under Ankara’s influence.
The strategy involves appointing senior officials disguised as advisors to the Syrian authorities, allowing Turkey to maintain a semblance of non-interference while playing a critical role in the country’s governance and restructuring efforts. This approach emphasizes providing essential support to bolster Syria’s administrative capabilities, aiming to rebuild its fragmented institutions.
Integral to this mission is enhancing security throughout Syria. Turkey plans to integrate various military factions, including the existing Syrian army forces, under a unified command with the Syrian National Army and groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. This alignment seeks to create a stronger military front to prevent the chaos experienced in Iraq post-2003 when the national army was disbanded.
Additionally, Turkey is rallying politicians and former opposition members to form a competent governing body, drawing from a pool of Syrian refugees within its borders. As part of this broader initiative, Turkey is also exploring agreements that would solidify its military presence and establish a constitutional framework for the future Syrian state.
However, the challenge remains in reviving Syria’s devastated economy. Turkey is expected to seek alliances with financially robust allies like Qatar to bolster its economic reconstruction efforts through international donor conferences.
Turkey’s Strategic Plan for a Post-Assad Syria: Governance, Security, and Economic Reconstruction
### Introduction
Turkey is implementing a comprehensive strategy to reshape governance in Syria following the potential exit of Bashar al-Assad. This initiative, which has been tested in northeastern Syria since 2016, aims to establish a regime under Turkey’s influence while transitioning to a more stable and manageable governing structure.
### Governance Strategy
The plan revolves around appointing senior Turkish officials as advisors to Syrian authorities. This tactic allows Turkey to maintain the appearance of non-interference while exerting significant influence over Syria’s governance. The focus is on rebuilding the nation’s shattered institutions, providing administrative support, and ensuring the operational functionality of local governments.
#### Features of Governance Strategy:
– **Appointment of Advisors**: Senior officials will act as advisors, enabling stronger Turkish oversight.
– **Administrative Support**: Increase bureaucratic capabilities to enhance local governance.
– **Reconstruction of Institutions**: Targeted efforts to revitalize local and national institutions destroyed during the conflict.
### Security Enhancements
A crucial aspect of Turkey’s initiative is improving security across Syria. Turkey aims to unify various military factions, including elements of the existing Syrian army, under a coordinated command structure alongside the Syrian National Army and groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. This consolidation is designed to create a robust military coalition capable of preventing the kind of chaos seen in Iraq after the 2003 invasion.
#### Security Strategy Highlights:
– **Unified Military Command**: Merging military forces to create a comprehensive defense strategy.
– **Prevention of Chaos**: Ensuring a stable security environment to deter potential insurgencies.
### Economic Reconstruction
Reviving Syria’s economy remains a daunting challenge. Turkey plans to collaborate with financially capable allies, such as Qatar, to facilitate economic reconstruction efforts. This includes seeking assistance through international donor conferences, emphasizing the need for collective efforts in rebuilding the war-torn nation.
#### Economic Strategies:
– **International Alliances**: Partnering with nations like Qatar to leverage financial support.
– **Donor Conferences**: Organizing events to gather commitments for reconstruction funds.
### Pros and Cons of Turkey’s Initiative
#### Pros:
– **Increased Stability**: Potential for a more controlled governance structure could lead to regional stability.
– **Strengthened Military Position**: A unified military may prevent insurgency and violence.
– **Economic Aid**: Collaborations could bring essential resources to rebuild infrastructure.
#### Cons:
– **Sovereignty Issues**: Concerns over Syrian sovereignty due to Turkish influence.
– **Internal Resistance**: Potential backlash from remaining pro-Assad forces and factions.
– **Long-term Dependence**: Risk of creating an economy reliant on external aid and influence.
### Conclusion
Turkey’s strategy for a post-Assad Syria is multifaceted, focusing on governance, security, and economic revival. While it holds the promise of stability and rebuilding, challenges surrounding sovereignty, internal resistance, and long-term implications remain pivotal issues to be addressed. As Turkey navigates this complex landscape, the success of its initiatives will depend on careful management of relationships with local stakeholders and the international community.
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